Healthcare seeking patterns for TB symptoms: Findings from the first national TB prevalence survey of South Africa, 2017-2019.

BACKGROUND: Although tuberculosis (TB) symptoms have limited sensitivity they remain an important entry point into the TB care cascade. OBJECTIVES: To investigate self-reported healthcare seeking for TB symptoms in participants in a community-based survey. METHODS: We compared reasons for not seeking care in participants reporting ≥1 of four TB screening symptoms (cough, weight loss, night sweats, fever) in the first South African national TB prevalence survey (2017-2019). We used logistic regression analyses to identify sociodemographic and clinical characteristics associated with healthcare seeking. RESULTS: 5,168/35,191 (14.7%) survey participants reported TB symptoms and 3,442/5168 had not sought healthcare. 2,064/3,442(60.0%) participants intended to seek care, 912 (26.5%) regarded symptoms as benign, 399 (11.6%) reported access barriers(distance and cost), 36 (1.0%) took other medications and 20(0.6%) reported health system barriers. Of the 57/98 symptomatic participants diagnosed with bacteriologically confirmed TB who had not sought care: 38(66.7%) intended to do so, 8(14.0%) regarded symptoms as benign, and 6(10.5%) reported access barriers. Among these 98, those with unknown HIV status(OR 0.16 95% CI 0.03-0.82), p = 0.03 and those who smoked tobacco products(OR 0.39, 95% CI 0.17-0.89, p = 0.03) were significantly less likely to seek care. CONCLUSIONS: People with TB symptoms delayed seeking healthcare, many regarded symptoms as benign while others faced access barriers. Those with unknown HIV status were significantly less likely to seek care. Strengthening community-based TB awareness and screening programmes together with self-screening models could increase awareness of the significance of TB symptoms and contribute to improving healthcare seeking and enable many people with TB to enter the TB care cascade.

Heterogeneity in COVID-19 infection among older persons in South Africa: Evidence from national surveillance data.

Background: The 2021 World Health Organization study on the impact of COVID-19 on older people (≥60 years) in the African region highlighted the difficulties they faced as the virus spread across borders and dominated the way of life. These difficulties included disruptions to both essential health care services and social support, as well as disconnections from family and friends. Among those who contracted COVID-19, the risks of severe illness, complications, and mortality were highest among near-old and older persons. Objective: Recognizing that older persons are a diverse group including younger- and older-aged individuals, a study was conducted to track the epidemic among near-old (50-59 years) and older persons (≥60 years) in South Africa covering the 2 years since the epidemic emerged. Methods: Using a quantitative secondary research approach, data for near-old and older persons were extracted for comparative purposes. COVID-19 surveillance outcomes (confirmed cases, hospitalizations, and deaths) and vaccination data were compiled up to March 5th, 2022. COVID-19 surveillance outcomes were plotted by epidemiological week and epidemic waves to visualize the overall growth and trajectory of the epidemic. Means for each age-group and by COVID-19 waves, together with age-specific rates, were calculated. Results: Average numbers of new COVID-19 confirmed cases and hospitalizations were highest among people aged 50-59- and 60-69-years. However, average age-specific infection rates showed that people aged 50-59 years and ≥80 years were most vulnerable to contracting COVID-19. Age-specific hospitalization and death rates increased, with people aged ≥ 70 years most affected. The number of people vaccinated was slightly higher among people aged 50-59 years before Wave Three and during Wave Four, but higher among people aged ≥ 60 years during Wave Three. The findings suggest that uptake of vaccinations stagnated prior to and during Wave Four for both age groups. Discussion: Health promotion messages and COVID-19 epidemiological surveillance and monitoring are still needed, particularly for older persons living in congregate residential and care facilities. Prompt health-seeking should be encouraged, including testing and diagnosis as well as taking up vaccines and boosters, particularly for high-risk older persons.

Social distancing behaviour: avoidance of physical contact and related determinants among South Africans: twelve days into the COVID-19 lockdown.

Social distancing behaviour is a primary preventive measure for reducing COVID-19 transmission. Improved understanding of factors associated with adherence to social distancing is vital for mitigating the impact of COVID-19 in South Africa. The study assessed adherence to social distancing and its associated factors during the state-implemented lockdown in South Africa. Data was analysed from a large-scale public survey conducted in South Africa from 8 to 29 April 2020, which was administered online and telephonically. Invitations to participate were distributed widely on local websites and social media networks, including on a data-free platform. Adherence to social distancing was measured by self-report of having engaged in close physical contact with someone outside the home. Simple and multiple logistic regression models examined the association between social distancing and potential explanatory variables. Of the 17,586 participants, 9.2% came into close physical contact with a person outside their home by hugging, kissing, or shaking hands during the past 7 days. The odds of coming into close physical contact with other people were significantly higher for males, students, and those with incorrect knowledge on physical distancing, angry attitudes about the lockdown, lack of confidence in the government response, high-risk perception, movement out of the local area, travelling to shops using public transport, households with communal water facilities and higher household size. The 25-59-year olds compared to 18-24-year olds, and the White and Indian/Asian compared to the African population groups had significantly lower odds of close physical contact with others outside the home. The study identifies subgroups of individuals for whom public health interventions to improve adherence to social distancing should be prioritised and tailored. Interventions and policies should take cognisance of the social determinants of health as well as culturally accepted greeting practices like hand shaking.

Understanding the differential impacts of COVID-19 among hospitalised patients in South Africa for equitable response.

BACKGROUND: There are limited in-depth analyses of COVID-19 differential impacts, especially in resource-limited settings such as South Africa (SA). OBJECTIVES: To explore context-specific sociodemographic heterogeneities in order to understand the differential impacts of COVID-19. METHODS: Descriptive epidemiological COVID-19 hospitalisation and mortality data were drawn from daily hospital surveillance data, National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) update reports (6 March 2020 - 24 January 2021) and the Eastern Cape Daily Epidemiological Report (as of 24 March 2021). We examined hospitalisations and mortality by sociodemographics (age using 10-year age bands, sex and race) using absolute numbers, proportions and ratios. The data are presented using tables received from the NICD, and charts were created to show trends and patterns. Mortality rates (per 100 000 population) were calculated using population estimates as a denominator for standardisation. Associations were determined through relative risks (RRs), 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and p-values <0.001. RESULTS: Black African females had a significantly higher rate of hospitalisation (8.7% (95% CI 8.5 - 8.9)) compared with coloureds, Indians and whites (6.7% (95% CI 6.0 - 7.4), 6.3% (95% CI 5.5 - 7.2) and 4% (95% CI 3.5 - 4.5), respectively). Similarly, black African females had the highest hospitalisation rates at a younger age category of 30 - 39 years (16.1%) compared with other race groups. Whites were hospitalised at older ages than other races, with a median age of 63 years. Black Africans were hospitalised at younger ages than other race groups, with a median age of 52 years. Whites were significantly more likely to die at older ages compared with black Africans (RR 1.07; 95% CI 1.06 - 1.08) or coloureds (RR 1.44; 95% CI 1.33 - 1.54); a similar pattern was found between Indians and whites (RR 1.59; 95% CI 1.47 - 1.73). Women died at older ages than men, although they were admitted to hospital at younger ages. Among black Africans and coloureds, females (50.9 deaths per 100 000 and 37 per 100 000, respectively) had a higher COVID-19 death rate than males (41.2 per 100 000 and 41.5 per 100 000, respectively). However, among Indians and whites, males had higher rates of deaths than females. The ratio of deaths to hospitalisations by race and gender increased with increasing age. In each age group, this ratio was highest among black Africans and lowest among whites. CONCLUSIONS: The study revealed the heterogeneous nature of COVID-19 impacts in SA. Existing socioeconomic inequalities appear to shape COVID-19 impacts, with a disproportionate effect on black Africans and marginalised and low socioeconomic groups. These differential impacts call for considered attention to mitigating the health disparities among black Africans.

Determinants of Confidence in Overall Knowledge About COVID-19 Among Healthcare Workers in South Africa: Results From an Online Survey.

Background: Adequate information and knowledge about COVID-19 has been shown to induce the confidence and positive performance among healthcare workers (HCWs). Therefore, assessing the relationship between confidence in knowledge and associated factors among HCWs is vital in the fight against COVID-19. This paper investigates factors associated with HCWs' confidence in their overall knowledge about COVID-19 in South Africa in the early stages of the epidemic. Methods: Data utilized in this paper were from an online survey conducted among HCWs using a structured questionnaire on a data free online platform. The study population were all the medical fraternity in South Africa including medical and nurse practitioners as well as other healthcare professionals. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models were performed to examine the factors associated with confidence in HCWs' overall knowledge about COVID-19. Results: Overall, just below half (47.4%) of respondents indicated that they had confidence in their overall knowledge about COVID-19. Increased odds of having confidence in the knowledge about COVID-19 were significantly associated with being male [aOR = 1.31 95% CI (1.03-1.65), p < 0.05], having a doctorate degree [aOR = 2.01 (1.23-3.28), p < 0.05], being satisfied with the information about COVID-19 guidelines [aOR = 6.01 (4.89-7.39), p < 0.001], having received training in 6-8 areas [aOR = 2.54 (1.89-3.43), p < 0.001] and having received training in 9-11 areas [aOR = 5.33 (3.81-7.47), p < 0.001], and having already treated COVID-19 patients [aOR = 1.43 (1.08-1.90), p < 0.001]. Those who were highly concerned with the levels of training of HCWs [aOR = 0.47 (0.24-0.92), p < 0.05] had decreased odds of having confidence in their overall knowledge about COVID-19. Conclusion: This study sheds light on the importance of capacitating HCWs with knowledge and adequate relevant training as part of infection prevention control measures during pandemics. Future training and information sharing should be sensitive to knowledge gaps by age, gender, qualifications, professional categories, and experience.

Preparedness for self-isolation or quarantine and lockdown in South Africa: results from a rapid online survey.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the COVID-19 pandemic a public health emergency of international concern. South Africa, like many other countries, initiated a multifaceted national response to the pandemic. Self-isolation and quarantine are essential components of the public health response in the country. This paper examined perceptions and preparedness for self-isolation or quarantine during the initial phase of the pandemic in South Africa. METHODS: The analysis used data obtained from an online quantitative survey conducted in all nine provinces using a data-free platform. Descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression models were used to analyse the data. RESULTS: Of 55,823 respondents, 40.1% reported that they may end up in self-isolation or quarantine, 32.6% did not think that they would and 27.4% were unsure. Preparedness for self-isolation or quarantine was 59.0% for self, 53.8% for child and 59.9% for elderly. The odds of perceived possibility for self-isolation or quarantine were significantly higher among Coloureds, Whites, and Indians/Asians than Black Africans, and among those with moderate or high self-perceived risk of contracting COVID-19 than those with low risk perception. The odds were significantly lower among older age groups than those aged 18-29 years, and those unemployed than fully employed. The odds of preparedness for self-isolation or quarantine were significantly less likely among females than males. Preparedness for self, child and elderly isolation or quarantine was significantly more likely among other population groups than Black Africans and among older age groups than those aged 18-29 years. Preparedness for self, child and elderly isolation or quarantine was significantly less likely among those self-employed than fully employed and those residing in informal dwellings than formal dwellings. In addition, preparedness for self-isolation or quarantine was significantly less likely among those with moderate and high self-perceived risk of contracting COVID-19 than low risk perception. CONCLUSION: The findings highlight the challenge of implementing self-isolation or quarantine in a country with different and unique social contexts. There is a need for public awareness regarding the importance of self-isolation or quarantine as well as counter measures against contextual factors inhibiting this intervention, especially in impoverished communities.

Short-term real-time prediction of total number of reported COVID-19 cases and deaths in South Africa: a data driven approach.

BACKGROUND: The rising burden of the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic in South Africa has motivated the application of modeling strategies to predict the COVID-19 cases and deaths. Reliable and accurate short and long-term forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths, both at the national and provincial level, are a key aspect of the strategy to handle the COVID-19 epidemic in the country. METHODS: In this paper we apply the previously validated approach of phenomenological models, fitting several non-linear growth curves (Richards, 3 and 4 parameter logistic, Weibull and Gompertz), to produce short term forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths at the national level as well as the provincial level. Using publicly available daily reported cumulative case and death data up until 22 June 2020, we report 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30-day ahead forecasts of cumulative cases and deaths. All predictions are compared to the actual observed values in the forecasting period. RESULTS: We observed that all models for cases provided accurate and similar short-term forecasts for a period of 5 days ahead at the national level, and that the three and four parameter logistic growth models provided more accurate forecasts than that obtained from the Richards model 10 days ahead. However, beyond 10 days all models underestimated the cumulative cases. Our forecasts across the models predict an additional 23,551-26,702 cases in 5 days and an additional 47,449-57,358 cases in 10 days. While the three parameter logistic growth model provided the most accurate forecasts of cumulative deaths within the 10 day period, the Gompertz model was able to better capture the changes in cumulative deaths beyond this period. Our forecasts across the models predict an additional 145-437 COVID-19 deaths in 5 days and an additional 243-947 deaths in 10 days. CONCLUSIONS: By comparing both the predictions of deaths and cases to the observed data in the forecasting period, we found that this modeling approach provides reliable and accurate forecasts for a maximum period of 10 days ahead.